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The problem with Ether right now for investors
  + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
While the supply of bitcoin is slowing after the halving , the supply of ether is growing at its fastest rate since 2022, according to CryptoQuant – crushing some investor's dreams of ether as an asset that would grow increasingly scarce. The median transaction fee is about 4x lower now that it was before Dencun for the same level of network activity. Some investors had hoped ether could compete with bitcoin, whose rate of supply growth slows every four years after the halving. For many, that idea was a side effect of the primary thesis on Ethereum, which sees it as a growing, scalable transaction network on which to build applications. Network activity would have to increase 3 to 4x to reverse the growing supply trend, if this relationship holds, he said.
Persons: Dencun, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's, Ethereum, Moreno Locations: ETH
The Ethereum network successfully completed its "Dencun" upgrade on Wednesday, which is meant to help it become faster and cheaper to use. The price of ether has been trading lower since then, which was expected based on the cryptocurrency's behavior following previous tech upgrades. "High activity on the Ethereum network has caused high transaction fees and, consequently, more fees burnt," Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, said in a note Wednesday. High transaction activity causes network fees to spike, more fees being burnt and total supply to decrease." They're hoping that the combination of increased activity and the decrease in the supply of ether over time will push the token's price higher.
Persons: CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's, William Ogden Moore Organizations: ETH, They're, bitcoin, Securities and Exchange Locations: Dencun, Solana, U.S
With bitcoin on a hot streak this past week, investors should brace themselves for a cooling in March. "But cash inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs are accelerating, and that seems to have been overpowering those technical signals." Although Bitcoin traded above $62,000 to end the week, it's realized price was down at the $42,000 level, according to CryptoQuant. CryptoQuant also showed the cost of opening new long positions in the futures market spiked in the recent rally, which historically signals a coming correction in the bitcoin price. Ether, however, has ended the month higher in six of the last eight March's since its inception, with an average gain on the month of 25%.
Persons: Yuya Hasegawa, Hasegawa, Julio Moreno, Bitcoin, it's, bitcoin, CryptoQuant, David Duong, Duong, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, New York Community Bancorp Locations: New York
Bitcoin is up more than 75% this year, but the market capitalization for stablecoins has dwindled during the same period. "This is unusual as often the market capitalization of stablecoin increases during rallies and decreases during downturns, matching the trend of the overall crypto market," JPMorgan analyst Steven Alexopoulos said in a note Thursday. "An explanation for the decline of the stablecoin market may be due to investors preferring the higher returns of bitcoin and Ethereum or even traditional assets (benefiting from a rise in interest rates)." In July, it hit an all-time high of $83.8 billion and now accounts for 68.5% of the overall stablecoin market. Tether's prominence Instead of focusing on declines in USDC, investors could point to Tether's growth as evidence of stablecoin inflows, for example.
Persons: Bitcoin, Steven Alexopoulos, bitcoin, USDC, Steven Lubka, Swan, David Wells, Coinbase, Lubka, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S ., JPMorgan, Drivers, Bank, U.S, Services, Enclave Markets, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission Locations: New York, Silicon, SVB, U.S, USDC
Coinbase shares fell more than 17% over the course of the week. The market cap of crypto 'securities' fell CryptoQuant's "SECurities" index fell about 14% following the lawsuit, while the market cap of bitcoin and ether has basically remained flat. JMP noted that in the "securities" the SEC named, bitcoin and ether, which represented 55% of Coinbase's trading volume in the first quarter, were excluded. Coinbase saw outflows of about 20 million of Polygon's matic token Tuesday afternoon, trading at about 73 cents by the end of the week. The popular gaming token Axie Infinity, trading at about $6, saw outflows of about 32,000 coins Monday afternoon.
Persons: Coinbase, Bitcoin, Jefferies, They're, Binance Organizations: SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Metrics, U.S, Sports Locations: U.S, Solana, Cardano, Coinbase
A little over a month ago, Ethereum underwent a major technology upgrade that allowed investors to withdraw their "staked," or locked up, coins on the network for the first time ever. The change, known as Shanghai or Shapella, was meant to bring more liquidity to the network by allowing investors to withdraw their staked assets. The total value of ether staked has risen, while the supply has fallen dramatically. Here's what else has happened in the month since Shapella: 1. So far, however, ETH fees have outpaced the growth in the amount of ether staked, leading to higher yields, he said.
October is a historically strong month for crypto, but this month, prices and volatility have been relatively flat. Don't call it a bottom yet The odd inactivity has investors wondering if the crypto market could be turning for the better and breaking out of this year's rut. That, combined with the recent low volatility, would provide more evidence of a bottom, but bitcoin today is still leaving derivative exchanges. "For low price volatility to be associated with bottoms, the portion of bitcoin inflows into exchanges dominated by whales ought to be relatively low," he said. CryptoQuant also analyzed bitcoin's MVRV, or market value to realized value, ratio, which shows crypto hasn't gone into undervalued territory.
If there's too much competition, that means the blocks are coming in too fast and the difficulty needs to go up, D.A. "An increasing network hashrate is good for the health of the [Bitcoin] network," Brendler told CNBC Pro. The problem for miners Miners have been feeling the heat since bitcoin fell below $20,000 and energy prices have increased. But between the hot Texas summer and the falling price of bitcoin, many miners have been forced to stop. In previous years, there's been a positive correlation between the bitcoin price and the Bitcoin hashrate, but in this new macro-led market, investors shouldn't place too much faith in that, Lau said.
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